Saturday Morning Punter: Region power struggles under way

The thing about unbalanced non-conference schedules -- and we learn it every year in the early part of the college and high school football seasons -- is you never really know what you've got until conference play starts.

Well, everyone in our coverage area now has at least two region games under their belts, so that picture is starting to take shape. We no longer have to rely solely on a game of "Six Degrees of Wade Hampton" to figure out who has the edge for the last two playoff spot in Region 8-AAA -- and much like just about everything else in this world, that game is better with (Kevin) Bacon. We no longer have to use the transitive property, the Pythagorean Theorem or any other mathematical rules to determine the favorite to win the Region 8-AAAA title (though that pesky Class 4-A point system still makes my brain hurt).

We're finally to the point of the season when we get to see the teams settle it on the field, and thank goodness for that -- football games just aren't as much fun to watch on paper.

So what better time than today to bring back my region power rankings, in which I break down how I think the regions will shake out based on what has happened so far and what's on the schedule for the remainder of the regular season?

Here goes nothing:

REGION POWER RANKINGS

Region 8-AAAA

1. Summerville (6-1, 2-0): The Green Wave has more impressive wins than Beaufort High, which shares the top spot in the standings, and the margin of its victories against common opponents leads one to believe Summerville has the edge ... for now.
2. Beaufort High (6-1, 2-0): The Eagles are a dangerous kind of team -- the kind that learns its lessons while winning. With four wins by seven points or fewer, Beaufort High is being tested in crunch time and passing those tests. That could come in handy the next few weeks.
3. Fort Dorchester (5-2, 1-2): The Patriots got off to a rough start in region play, but they've already faced the region's top two teams and have posted solid wins the past three weeks.
4. West Ashley (3-4, 0-2): The Wildcats have fallen on hard times, losing four in a row, but all four were to good teams, and they're still a dangerous matchup. Fort Dorchester should be on upset alert this week.
5. Colleton County (2-5, 0-1): The Cougars have lost five in a row, but two of those losses were by one point and another was by six at Fort Dorchester. They're a dangerous squad that has the opportunity and ability to play spoiler in the coming weeks.

Bottom line: Summerville and Beaufort High appear to be on a crash course for another region title showdown Oct. 30, but with more parity in the region than in recent years, both will have to play well to avoid an upset.

Region 8-AAA

1. North Charleston (6-1, 2-0): The Cougars dodged a bullet last night against Battery Creek, but they've already beaten what appear to be their top two challengers for the region title in Hilton Head High and the Dolphins, so it should be smooth sailing from here.
2. Battery Creek (2-5, 1-1): The Dolphins were thisclose to becoming the favorites to win the region last night. They still look to have an inside track on a home playoff game, but tough intra-county matchups with Bluffton and Hilton Head High loom the next two weeks.
3. Hilton Head High (3-4, 1-1): The Seahawks took a big step toward clinching a playoff spot with a win against a scrappy Lake Marion team, but their work is far from done. They'll have to be focused on a Stall team that has its back against the wall this week, rather than looking ahead to Battery Creek.
4. Lake Marion (2-5, 1-1): The Gators get the nod for the last playoff spot by virtue of their head-to-head win against Bluffton, so the onus is on the Bobcats to upset someone.
5. Bluffton (2-5, 1-1): The Bobcats kept their playoff hopes alive with an overtime victory against Stall, but they have to be kicking themselves for letting one get away at Lake Marion. Now they have to pull an upset to make the playoffs.
6. Stall (2-5, 0-2): The Warriors hopes took a big hit last night at Bluffton. They need to knock off the Seahawks this week and take down Lake Marion the following week to sneak into the postseason.

Bottom line: North Charleston is in great shape, but everyone else has work to do. The region is awfully balanced this year, so there should be some close games down the stretch.

Region 5-AA

1. Silver Bluff (5-2, 2-0): It doesn't look like there will be an power shift in the region this year. The Bulldogs still reign.
2. Barnwell (2-5, 2-0): Despite an 0-5 start, the Warhorses appear headed for the playoffs and possibly a top-two seed. Their tough early-season schedule seems to have them ready for region play.
3. Ridgeland (4-3, 1-1): The much-improved Jaguars have a legitimate shot at knocking off Barnwell for the No. 2 spot, but they need to eliminate mistakes such as untimely turnovers and silly penalties.
4. Edisto (2-5, 1-1): The Cougars are right there with Ridgeland, standing on the precipice between hosting a first-round playoff game and getting an early start on basketball season.
5. Pelion (3-4, 0-2): The Panthers missed an opportunity last night in Ridgeland. Now they face an uphill battle to make the playoffs.
6. Wade Hampton (1-6, 0-2): It's hard to pinpoint what happened to the Red Devils, but things have not gone as planned. Running back Dondre Brown is back from injury, so they're still dangerous, but the defense has to improve.

Bottom line: Like in years past, it seems to be Silver Bluff and everyone else. But who among "everyone else" emerges to claim playoff spots is anyone's guess.

Region 6-A

1. Cross (6-1, 4-0): The Trojans not only are undefeated in region play, but they also have a nice non-region win against Lake Marion and a great one at james Island. They appear poised to win the region and make some noise in the playoffs.
2. Military Magnet (4-3, 2-1): The Eagles get the nod over St. John's, but the No. 2 spot in the region probably will be on the line when those two square off Oct. 23.
3. St. John's (5-2, 3-1): The Islanders survived a scare at Hardeeville last night. They have a non-region game at Bethune-Bowman this week before closing with two tough region contests against Military Magnet and Baptist Hill.
4. Hardeeville (3-4, 1-3): The Hurricanes have had some tough-luck losses in region play, but they still have last-place Lincoln on their schedule. The defense has been solid, and it will have to dish out more of the same in a key game at Baptist Hill this week.
5. Baptist Hill (3-4, 1-2): The Bobcats can lay claim to the fourth spot by knocking off Hardeeville this week, but they still have to travel to St. John's to close the regular season.
6. Academic Magnet (3-4, 1-2): The Raptors are closing the gap between themselves and the top teams in the region, but they're not quite there yet. With Cross, Baptist Hill and Military Magnet left on the schedule, they'll be hard-pressed to find another win.
7. Lincoln (0-7, 0-3): The Yellow Jackets have struggled, to say the least. They've been shut out four times and limited to seven points twice more, and it won't get easier against remaining opponents Military Magnet, Cross and Hardeeville, all of which boast strong defenses.

Bottom line: Cross is in control at the top, but the middle of the pack is awfully muddled.

SCISAA Region 2-AA

1. Northwood Academy (7-1, 3-0): The margin is razor-thin between the Chargers and Hilton Head Christian, but the defending champs get the edge until further notice. Their showdown Oct. 30 ought to be a great game.
2. Hilton Head Christian (6-1, 4-0): The Eagles are playing great on both sides of the ball and played their best game of the season last night against Orangeburg Prep. They get one more tune-up next week at Cathedral Academy, then face back-to-back tests against Colleton Prep and Northwood.
3. Colleton Prep (6-2, 3-0): The Warhawks are an awfully good team to be only the third-best in their region, but that's how good this conference is at the top. Still, running back Parker Headley is a dynamic player who could help Colleton Prep orchestrate and upset of one or both of the top teams.
4. Thomas Heyward (3-4, 2-1): The last playoff spot is a battle between the Rebels, St. Andrew's and Hilton Head Prep. Thomas Heyward has the best defense of the bunch and the best running game of the trio, so the Rebels get the edge. They also get Prep at home this week in a game that could decide the final playoff team.
5. Hilton Head Prep (1-6, 0-3): If Matt Layman was still healthy, who knows what the Dolphins could do. They still have a chance to make the playoffs if they win this week at Thomas Heyward, but the defense has had an awfully tough time stopping the run, and the Rebels run it well.
6. St. Andrew's (0-6, 0-4): The Saints' playoff hopes took a big hit when they lost at home to Thomas Heyward on Oct. 2. Now they need a miracle to make the postseason.
7. First Baptist (1-7, 0-4): The Hurricanes have surrendered 361 points in their last seven games. Need I say more?

Bottom line: It's a three-way race for the title and a three-way race for the final playoff spot. That should make for an exciting finish to the regular season.

Of course, these are all subject to change, because as much fun as it is to predict what's going to happen on the football field, it's a heck of a lot more fun to watch it play out with your own eyes. And now is the time of year when we get to do exactly that.

Till Friday,

JJ

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